The First Major Obstacle with the Russo-Ukraine Peace Plan
On Wednesday, April 23, 2025, Axios revealed the U.S Administration’s framework for peace between Ukraine and Russia. Much of the peace plan had been tested in the public sphere by the Trump Administration over the past year. What is unusual about this proposal is that it is considered the Trump Administration’s “final offer”, and it was offered in such a public manner.
The one-page document was presented to Ukraine in Paris on Wednesday, while Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Envoy to the Middle East, presented it to Vladimir Putin of Russia on Friday.
The components of the framework, according to Axios, include the following:
“What Russia gets under Trump's proposal
"De jure" U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.
"De-facto recognition" of Russia's occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.
A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.
The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.
Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
What Ukraine gets under Trump's proposal
"A robust security guarantee" involving an ad hoc group of European countries and potentially also like-minded non-European countries. The document is vague in terms of how this peacekeeping operation would function and does not mention any U.S. participation.
The return of the small part of Kharkiv Oblast that Russia has occupied.
Unimpeded passage of the Dnieper River which runs along the front line in parts of southern Ukraine.
Compensation and assistance for rebuilding, though the document does not say where the funding will come from.
Other elements of the plan
The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest such facility in Europe — will be considered as Ukrainian territory but operated by the U.S., with electricity supplied to both Ukraine and Russia.
The document references the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal, which Trump has said will be signed on Thursday.”
The American Ukraine PAC finds the peace framework to be lopsided in Russia’s favor and comes with challenges for implementation and fostering an enduring peace. We will outline the major sticking points over the next two weeks, starting with “de jure” U.S. recognition of Crimea.
One of the larger points of contention for Ukraine and the rest of the world would be the “de jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control over Crimea. Ukraine, the United States, Europe, the United Nations, and the world will have issues with this.
What is the definition “de jure” recognition?
According to Brittanica,” de jure, legal concept that refers to what happens according to the law, in contrast to de facto (Latin: “from the fact”), which is used to refer to what happens in practice or in reality.” So, the United States would legally recognize Russia’s rights over Crimea.
1. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits the government from recognizing another country’s right to Ukrainian land. In this peace plan, Ukraine would never recognize Russia’s “de jure” right to Crimea without a referendum or change to its constitution.
“Article 2 of the constitution states that Ukraine's sovereignty extends throughout its entire territory, which, within its present border, is indivisible and inviolable".
Any change to Ukraine's territory would have to go to a national referendum, which must be authorized by the Ukrainian parliament.”
In 1991, the Crimean Oblast voted in a majority for Independence as part of Ukraine. Ukraine still views Russia’s annexation as illegal.
2. The United States has many barriers in its offer recognizing Russia with “de-jure” control over Crimea. The United States (Why Trump’s Crimea proposal would tear down a decades-old pillar of the global order | CNN) would be in breach of the Budapest Memorandum, in which the United States committed to the integrity of Ukraine’s borders in return for Ukraine giving up its nuclear weapons.
“In terms of international law, such a pronouncement would be null and void,” said Sergey Vasiliev, an international law expert and professor at the Open University in the Netherlands.
Additionally, through the Welles Declaration, the United States has held an eighty-five-year precedent starting with the Soviet Union’s occupation of the Baltics, in 1940 that it would never recognize illegal annexations of territory. For the next fifty years, the Soviet Union had “de-facto control” over the Baltic nations, but the United States never recognized it as “de-jure”. Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, under Trump’s first term of office in July 2018 used the Welles Declaration in his affirmation that the United States would never recognize Russia’s “de-jure” claim over Crimea.
President Trump would have to defy international law, breach the Budapest Memorandum, overturn eighty-five years of American precedent, and even proclamations during his own Presidency to deliver on this promise.
3. Europe and U.S. Allies across the World will have many issues with accepting this. In 2014, the United Nations adopted a resolution affirming the border integrity of Ukraine, which included Crimea. This resolution was passed with 100 voting nations and included the United States of America. While United Nations’ resolutions are non-binding, unlike Security Council resolutions, they still hold international weight.
The largest issue with this proclamation would be the new world order it would create around the world. It would give a green light to other countries that they could invade neighbors, and the U.S. response would probably be “de-jure” recognition at some point in the future. Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran would relish this new precedent. However, America’s allies in NATO and across Asia would be horrified by this new American precedent, and it would cause more division between them and the United States.
It is not in the United States’ long-term security interests to include a “de-jure” recognition of Crimea in any peace plan. In fact, it will only destabilize the world and embolden our adversaries. Congress must act now to pass legislation and influence the Trump Administration to take this out of any negotiated peace between Russia and Ukraine.