Putin’s Punitive Peace Terms are a Call for Ukraine’s Capitulation

The Atlantic Council reviewed the proposed peace memoranda exchanged by Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Monday, June 2nd.  

This is a summary of their analysis.

While they called the Ukraine peace plan pragmatic based on battlefield realities and security guarantees, the Russian peace plan was called “punitive”. It would re-establish the Kremlin’s domination over Ukraine and forever change the course of the post-war Ukrainian state to “an inevitable death”. It should now be clear to anyone that Putin is not negotiating in good faith for peace unless peace means Ukraine’s surrender.

Putin means to destroy Ukraine, and he is using the peace negotiation process “to strengthen his hand and divide the West”. Russia’s conditions for peace were not surprising, as they mimic conditions Russia has been setting since it invaded Ukraine. Its maximalist approach was sent as a message of defiance to Washington.

In it, Russia called for Ukraine to retreat from the four regions that Russia annexed in the Fall of 2022 but does not yet fully control. This would include major cities and force millions of its citizens to live under indefinite Russian occupation. Ukraine would also be required to cede these regions, including Crimea, to Russia, enabling international recognition of Russia’s territorial conquests.

Putin’s peace plan also calls for Ukraine to accept limits on its military’s size and the types of weapons it can possess. It would also be barred from forming alliances with foreign nations or joining military blocs. It would leave Ukraine isolated and vulnerable to Russian control.

In addition to dismantling Ukrainian territory, the peace plan would also look to dismantle Ukrainian culture and identity. It would require Ukraine to accept the Russian language as a state language and adopt a “Kremlin-friendly” version of Ukraine’s history. It would require Ukraine to grant the Russian Orthodox Church official status to operate in Ukraine again. It would also ban political parties considered “nationalist” by the Kremlin.  This would guarantee a pro-Kremlin puppet government running Ukraine.

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian President, announced Russia’s goals on X. “The Istanbul talks are not for striking a compromise peace on someone else’s delusional terms,” commented Medvedev…“the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime.” The Kremlin uses that term to refer to the Ukrainian State. “That’s what the Russian memorandum published yesterday is about,” he noted.

“Congratulations to Mr. Medvedev for a rare moment of honesty coming from the Russian propaganda machine,” commented President Trump ally Senator Lindsey Graham. “I appreciate you making it clear to the world that Putin and Russia are not remotely interested in peace.”

While Ukraine has agreed to everything President Trump has asked of them, including an unconditional ceasefire, President Putin has only used stalling tactics, escalated the war through missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilians, and mocked the peace process. While “actively engaging” in peace negotiations, Russia is preparing for a large-scale summer offensive. This is the typical Russian playbook. They negotiate while continuing to strike their enemy hard to gain every advantage in the negotiation.

Now is the time to accept the fact that Putin will not stop until he is stopped. He believes he is on a messianic mission to extinguish the Ukrainian state and revive the Russian Empire. The only thing that can change Putin’s mind is Western strength.

“They must sanction Russia to the max and arm Ukraine to the teeth.”  This will require the political will of Western countries to stay the course. Ukraine is willing to do the rest.